我国黄金期货市场套期保值功能的实证研究

本文选取2008年1月9日至2010年12月31日之间期货价格和现货价格数据,运用传统回归模型(OLS)、双变量向量自回归模型(B-VAR)、误差修正套期保值模型(ECM)、误差修正GARCH模型(EC-GARCH)对样本数据进行平稳性和协整关系检验,在估计最小风险套期保值比率的基础上发现:(1)我国黄金期货市场运行三年多来,通过黄金期货市场进行套期保值是有效的,可以较为明显地降低参与者面临的价格波动风险;(2)在具体进行套期保值操作时,应该根据套期保值时限长短的不同和预期效果的差异,采用不同的模型来合理确定自身的套期保值比例。在此基础上,本文提出了相关政策建议。     

拓展中国与主要新兴经济体国家的贸易关系——基于制成品出口技术结构的比较分析

随着欧债危机愈演愈烈,过度依赖欧美市场的中国正在加紧对新兴市场的开拓步伐。为了提高中国出口商品在新兴市场的国际竞争力,本文通过测度出口商品技术复杂度指标,首先计算了SITCRev.3至5位码下2600多种制成品的技术含量,在此基础上将所有制成品按技术含量从低到高排列后分成五类,然后计算了中国与11个崛起中的新兴经济体国家在每类产品上的出口份额,构建各新兴经济体的出口技术结构。通过比较中国与新兴经济体国家出口技术结构,考察中国与新兴经济体国家之间贸易的竞争域、贸易的发展空间、贸易的发展潜力,以及这种相互间的贸易替代域与贸易发展空间的动态变化。分析结果表明:入世以来,中国制成品出口技术结构继续升级,但是升级速度落后于印度;中国与印度、越南相比,低技术含量制成品的优势已经不明显,与俄罗斯、新加坡、韩国、马来西亚、巴西和墨西哥相比,中国在高技术和中偏高技术制成品上处于劣势。在这种后追前堵的趋势下,中国有落入"中等收入陷阱"的风险,据此提出了优化中国与各新兴经济体国家之间出口技术结构和跨越"中等收入陷阱"的政策建议。     

新兴市场国家外汇储备适度规模研究

本文基于外汇储备的职能划分外汇储备的需求层次,建立了外汇储备适度规模测算模型,选取了中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度、南非五个金砖国家作为新兴市场国家的典型代表,力图通过研究这五个金砖国家的外汇储备适度规模问题,从这一新角度界定新兴市场国家外汇储备适度规模区间,为新兴市场国家外汇储备管理提供有益的参考。实证研究中,通过测算金砖国家2000-2010年的外汇储备适度规模区间,我们发现以"金砖国家"中国、俄罗斯、巴西为代表的一些新兴市场国家的外汇储备逐渐偏离适度外汇规模上限;同时以南非为代表的一部分新兴市场国家,外汇储备水平一直处于不足的状态;而印度良好的外汇储备管理政策使得其外汇储备量一直保持在适度规模区间内。最后,针对各个新兴市场国家外汇储备处于的不同状态,我们提出了相应的政策建议。     

A better copyright system? comparing welfare of indefinitely renewable copyright versus fixed-length copyright

This study models and simulates fixed-length copyright (FLC) and indefinitely renewable copyright (IRC) and compares their social welfare. Evidence is found suggesting that IRC has lower maximal social welfare than FLC does. This difference can be explained by the way copyright duration is determined. Copyright duration represents the balance between encouraging creation and reducing restrictions on the consumption of information products. Under FLC, copyright duration is chosen directly by legislation; under IRC, it is induced indirectly through a copyright fee. However, the imposition of a copyright fee distorts the behavior of creators and thus decreases social welfare.     

Of Markets And Martyrs: Is It OK To Pay Well For Care?

If caring work were well paid, would it lose some of the special, emotional, interpersonal aspects we want in "real" care relationships? Some fear that the introduction of "market values" would lead to such an outcome. This article seeks to bring to light some logical fallacies and insufficiently expunged gender dualisms that may lie, unexamined, under such concerns. Examining the ways we think and talk about markets, meanings, and motivations, it argues that the foci of feminist concern should instead be the concrete structures of caregiving and the problem of under-demand.     

Understanding the Emergence of Markets: A Social Constructionist Perspective on Gay Economy

This paper sets out to explore the construction of a market based on identity. The interest lies upon the emergence and present understanding of the gay male market. To achieve this, an understanding is percolated through social contructionism in general and the areas of ideology, language, and power in particular. The first section of the paper deals with the historical external understandings of homosexuality, which fit into three overlapping phases: the moral, social, and medical. Following on from this, these three phases are then reflected through film. The second section deals with internal formation and is tied into wider social changes. The assent and naturalization of homosexuality is outlined where the possibilities of a gay market emerge. This is then also reflected through film. The final section deals with one of the present preoccupations when dealing with the gay male market, which is the aspect of identity through consumption. This is shown to tie into present wider concerns with the dominance of consumption as the mediator of identity.     

中美黄金市场的价格发现和动态条件相关性研究

本文运用向量误差修正模型、Hasbrouck信息份额分析法和Engle(2002)提出的动态条件相关多元GARCH模型,研究从2004年11月18日至2008年11月17日期间,中国黄金市场与美国黄金市场的价格发现和动态条件相关性。实证结果发现:中国黄金市场现货和美国黄金市场期货、ETF三者间存在长期均衡关系,美国黄金市场ETF和期货在价格发现过程中居主导地位;中美黄金市场间的相关性随时间变化而动态改变,上海黄金交易所开设夜市交易及延长夜市交易时间,增加了两个市场的关联性,但中国黄金期货的推出和2008年全球金融危机的加深,又使中美黄金市场间的相关性有所降低。     

Competition in the Pharmaceutical Industry: The Case of PAH Drugs

The nature and extent of competition between different therapies for a given medical condition often is an important and controversial issue in both antitrust cases and general strategic analysis in the pharmaceutical industry. The market for pulmonary arterial hypertension (‘PAH’) therapies provides an interesting case study for analyzing these issues. An event study analyzing how the stock prices of PAH therapy providers respond to competitive developments in the industry sheds light on the nature of competition among different types of therapies. The results support the view that the strength of competition between any two drugs for the same condition can vary greatly depending on factors such as the stage of the patient’s disease, the mode of drug delivery, the mechanism of action, convenience/ease of use and other characteristics.     

On the social structure of markets

Economic theorists have seldom discussed the social structuresbehind markets, even though market trading relies heavily onseller/buyer roles and personal relations among traders. Thispaper considers the structural basis of markets and proposesa layered approach which accommodates a wide range of competitiveand relational trade within a definition of markets that distinguishesthem from non-market exchange. Giving due regard to social structureslays bare the institutional character of markets and providesa rationale for case studies of how particular markets function.     

看法差异、信息不对称、卖空限制与价格形成

本文构建了一个有卖空限制的指令驱动的市场交易模型，在模型中考虑了交易者之间的信息不对称和看法差异，应用博弈均衡的分析方法，求解模型的均衡结果。通过对均衡结果的分析表明：市场均衡是知情与未知情者之间的一个混同均衡，均衡报价是未知情买卖者之间分配交易剩余的结果，其分配依据是买卖双方各自不能实现交易的相对风险。市场均衡时，一定存在正的买卖价差，价差由限价指令的执行风险补偿项和逆向选择风险补偿项构成。执行风险补偿项是资产分散度指标的减函数，是知情者比例的增函数，并且随交易者看法分散程度的提高而增大。逆向选择风险补偿项是资产分散度指标和知情者比例的增函数，并且随着未知情者对信息掌握程度的提高而减小。